At my time of writing the general election is just under four weeks away and the perceived wisdom is that labour are going to win by a country mile. They may win but I’m not so sure about the country mile.
I am not a politician and, therefore, I have no problem in sticking my neck out and calling it as I see it. Logic would suggest that Labour will win.
“I know people are busy but by investing some time now could pay dividends in the not-too-distant future”
Peter Carter
I agree with that, however I believe it is conceivable that the Lib Dems could be in second place and that Labour might not achieve the 326 seats that are needed to form an outright majority. This would mean we are in coalition territory.
In general elections, it is not uncommon that misjudgements can cost a political party dear.
Labour leader Neil Kinnock in 1992 appeared to be heading to Downing Street and then had a disastrous moment at a rally in Sheffield, when he came across to many as yobbish and not fit for the office of prime minister. The Tories unexpectedly won that election.
The recording of Gordon Brown referring to a woman as a bigot, lost Labour a significant number of votes and he narrowly failed to win the election.
Neither did the Conservatives, which resulted in both Labour and the Tories courting the Lib Dems and their leader Nick Clegg decided to go into coalition with the Tories.
In 2017, Theresa May called an election when she still had two years of that parliament to run. May gambled that the public would back her in preference to Jeremy Corbyn.
The Tories built a presidential campaign around a person who lacked charisma and May had spectacular moments of catastrophe, such as her comment “nothing has changed” in relation to her social care policy.
Years later, May was to say how much she regretted saying it. The Tories lost their majority and May had to turn to the DUP to salvage her premiership and keep the Tories in power.
And then there is the converse. Politicians can make statements and promises that appeal to the electorate.
In the 1970 general election, the then Labour prime minster Harold Wilson was expected to canter to a win and was actually working on changes to his cabinet when, a few days before election day, Ted Heath, the leader of the Tory party, made a speech in which he said: “If I am elected I will cut pricess at a stroke.”
This resonated with the public who had been concerned about the cost of living and, against all the odds, Heath won the election.
During the referendum on leaving the European Union, the infamous sign on the bus, which said “we send the EU £350m a week, let’s fund the NHS instead”, touched a chord with the public, and was one of the factors which resulted in the narrow margin of 51.89% to 48.11% leave the EU.
Rishi Sunak’s astonishing decision to leave the D-Day commemoration will cost the Tories countless votes, although prior to his misjudgement, it would have been the most miraculous recovery since Jesus brought Lazurus back to life to resurrect the Tory parties’ chances of winning this election.
With several weeks still to go, there is every possibility that someone in the Labour camp may make an inappropriate comment that could influence the way the undecided vote.
So, what has this got to do with readers of Nursing Times? On average, there are over 1,000 nurses and midwives in every constituency. Most of them have a husband, wife, partner and friends.
Their vote could be the make or break for those wishing to become MPs. Now is the time for each nurse and midwife to lobby those standing for election. Many might feel this is a pointless exercise, I do not.
By getting potential MPs to commit to issues affecting nurses and midwives, there is a greater chance that when those people are in Westminster, they will be supportive of the NHS generally, and nurses and midwives specifically.
In February 1974, Labour won the election but did not have an overall majority and in October of the same year another election was called; Labour scraped home with a majority of three.
Many seats then were decided on a few thousand or in some cases a few hundred votes.
We could well be in a similar scenario and by getting commitments now will mean a greater chance of organisations and the public holding those in power to honour their pre-elections promises.
If you don’t do the lobbying now there is a lost opportunity. I know people are busy but by investing some time now could pay dividends in the not-too-distant future.
Dr Peter Carter is an independent healthcare consultant and former chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing
A Manifesto by Nurses
Over the past few months, Nursing Times has been building a manifesto created by the nursing profession ready for the 2024 general election. A Manifesto by Nurses features proposals by nurses on how the next government can approach some of the biggest issues in health and social care. Topics covered include the nursing workforce crisis, the future of the NHS, the environmental impact of healthcare as well as focuses on public health, social care and mental health.